CoreLogic Reports More Than Half of States At or Within 10 Percent of Pre-Crisis Home Price Peak

At the state level, including distressed sales, all states showed year-over-year home price appreciation in October. Twenty-seven states and the District of Columbia were at or within 10 percent of their home price peak. The HPI reached new highs in a total of nine states: Colorado, Louisiana, Nebraska, New York, North Dakota, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas and Wyoming.

Excluding distressed sales, home prices nationally increased 5.6 percent in October 2014 compared to October 2013 and 0.6 percent month over month compared to September 2014. Also excluding distressed sales, 49 states and the District of Columbia showed year-over-year home price appreciation in October, with Mississippi being the only state to experience a year-over-year decline (-1.2 percent). Distressed sales include short sales and real estate owned (REO) transactions.

The CoreLogic HPI Forecast indicates that home prices, including distressed sales, are projected to increase 0.2 percent month over month from October 2014 to November 2014 and, on a year-over-year basis, by 5.1 percent** from October 2014 to October 2015. Excluding distressed sales, home prices are expected to rise 0.2 percent month over month from October 2014 to November 2014 and by 4.7 percent** year over year from October 2014 to October 2015. The CoreLogic HPI Forecast is a monthly projection of home prices using the CoreLogic HPI and other economic variables. Values are derived from state-level forecasts by weighting indices according to the number of owner-occupied households for each state.

“Home price growth is moderating as we head into the late fall and is currently running at half the pace it was in the spring of 2014,” said Sam Khater, deputy chief economist at CoreLogic. “However, there are still pockets of strength, especially in several Texas markets, as well as Seattle, Denver and other markets with strong economic fundamentals.”

“The gradual recovery of the housing market continues to be propelled by improving employment, more buyer and seller confidence, continued low rates and, in certain parts of the country, investor demand. The continued actual and projected rise in home prices confirms that fact,” said Anand Nallathambi, president and CEO of CoreLogic. “Based on our projections, home prices in over half the country will have reached or surpassed levels last seen at the height of the housing bubble sometime in mid-2015.”

Highlights as of October 2014:

• Including distressed sales, the five states with the highest home price appreciation were: Michigan (+10.5 percent), South Dakota (+10.4 percent), Montana (+9.1 percent), Texas (+8.7 percent) and Colorado (+8.6 percent).
• Excluding distressed sales, the five states with the highest home price appreciation were: South Dakota (+10.4 percent), Massachusetts (+9.7 percent), Maine (+8.4 percent), Texas (+8.1 percent) and Michigan (+8.0 percent).
• Including distressed transactions, the peak-to-current change in the national HPI (from April 2006 to October 2014) was -12.4 percent. Excluding distressed transactions, the peak-to-current change in the HPI for the same period was -8.9 percent.
• The five states with the largest peak-to-current declines, including distressed transactions, were: Nevada (-36.1 percent), Florida (-33.5 percent), Arizona (-29.0 percent), Rhode Island (-28.3 percent) and Maryland (-21.9 percent).
• Including distressed sales, the U.S. has experienced 32 consecutive months of year-over-year increases; however, the national average is no longer posting double-digit increases.
• Ninety-four of the top 100 Core Based Statistical Areas (CBSAs) measured by population showed year-over-year increases in October 2014. The six CBSAs that showed year-over-year declines were Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford, Conn.; Worcester, Mass.-Conn.; Greensboro-High Point, N.C.; Rochester, N.Y.; Camden, N.J. and Winston-Salem, N.C.

*September data was revised. Revisions with public records data are standard, and to ensure accuracy, CoreLogic incorporates the newly released public data to provide updated results.
** The forecast accuracy represents a 95-percent statistical confidence interval with a +/- 2.0 percent margin of error for the index including distressed sales and a +/- 1.9 percent margin of error for the index excluding distressed sales.

October HPI for the Country’s Largest CBSAs by Population (Ranked by Single Family Including Distressed)

October National and State HPI (Ranked by Single Family Including Distressed)

Figure 1 - Home Price Index
Percentage Change Year Over Year

Figure 2 - YoY HPI Growth for 25 Highest-Rate States
Minimum, Maximum, Current since January 1976

Map 1 – October 2014 CoreLogic HPI Single Family Including Distressed

Map 2 – October 2014 CoreLogic HPI Single Family Excluding Distressed

Methodology
The CoreLogic HPI^™ incorporates more than 30 years’ worth of repeat sales transactions, representing more than 65 million observations sourced from CoreLogic industry-leading property information and its securities and servicing databases. The CoreLogic HPI provides a multi-tier market evaluation based on price, time between sales, property type, loan type (conforming vs. nonconforming) and distressed sales. The CoreLogic HPI is a repeat-sales index that tracks increases and decreases in sales prices for the same homes over time, including single-family attached and single-family detached homes, which provides a more accurate “constant-quality” view of pricing trends than basing analysis on all home sales. The CoreLogic HPI provides the most comprehensive set of monthly home price indices available covering 7095 ZIP codes (59 percent of total U.S. population), 653 Core Based Statistical Areas (89 percent of total U.S. population) and 1,252 counties (85 percent of total U.S. population) located in all 50 states and the District of Columbia. Forecast ranges provided in this report are based on a 95 percent confidence interval.

Source: CoreLogic
The data provided are for use only by the primary recipient or the primary recipient’s publication or broadcast. This data may not be re-sold, republished or licensed to any other source, including publications and sources owned by the primary recipient’s parent company without prior written permission from CoreLogic. Any CoreLogic data used for publication or broadcast, in whole or in part, must be sourced as coming from CoreLogic, a data and analytics company. For use with broadcast or web content, the citation must directly accompany first reference of the data. If the data are illustrated with maps, charts, graphs or other visual elements, the CoreLogic logo must be included on screen or website. For questions, analysis or interpretation of the data, contact Lori Guyton at [email protected] or Bill Campbell at [email protected]. Data provided may not be modified without the prior written permission of CoreLogic. Do not use the data in any unlawful manner. The data are compiled from public records, contributory databases and proprietary analytics, and its accuracy is dependent upon these sources.

About CoreLogic
CoreLogic (NYSE: CLGX) is a leading global property information, analytics and data-enabled services provider. The company’s combined data from public, contributory and proprietary sources includes over 3.5 billion records spanning more than 40 years, providing detailed coverage of property, mortgages and other encumbrances, consumer credit, tenancy, location, hazard risk and related performance information. The markets CoreLogic serves include real estate and mortgage finance, insurance, capital markets, and the public sector. CoreLogic delivers value to clients through unique data, analytics, workflow technology, advisory and managed services. Clients rely on CoreLogic to help identify and manage growth opportunities, improve performance and mitigate risk. Headquartered in Irvine, Calif., CoreLogic operates in North America, Western Europe and Asia Pacific. For more information, please visit www.corelogic.com.

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For real estate industry and trade media:
Bill Campbell
[email protected]
212-995-8057

For general news media:
Lori Guyton
[email protected]
901-277-6066

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