CoreLogic Reports Home Prices Rose by 5.7 Percent Year Over Year in January 2015
—National Home Prices Projected to Increase by 4.9 Percent Year Over Year by January 2016—
Including distressed sales, 27 states and the District of Columbia are at or within 10 percent of their peak. Four states, New York (+5.6), Wyoming (+8.3 percent), Texas (+8.3 percent) and Colorado (+9.1 percent), reached new highs in the home price index since January 1976 when the index starts.
Excluding distressed sales, home prices increased 5.6 percent in January 2015 compared to January 2014 and increased 1.4 percent month over month compared to December 2014. Also excluding distressed sales, all states and the District of Columbia showed year-over-year home price appreciation in January. Distressed sales include short sales and real estate owned (REO) transactions.
The CoreLogic HPI Forecast indicates that home prices, including distressed sales, are projected to increase 0.4 percent month over month from January 2015 to February 2015 and, on a year-over-year basis, by 5.3 percent** from January 2015 to January 2016. Excluding distressed sales, home prices are expected to increase 0.3 percent month over month from January 2015 to February 2015 and by 4.9 percent** year over year from January 2015 to January 2016. The CoreLogic HPI Forecast is a monthly projection of home prices using the CoreLogic HPI and other economic variables. Values are derived from state-level forecasts by weighting indices according to the number of owner-occupied households for each state.
“House price appreciation has generally been stronger in the western half of the nation and weakest in the mid-Atlantic and northeast states,” said Dr. Frank Nothaft, chief economist at CoreLogic. “In part, these trends reflect the strength of regional economies. Colorado and Texas have had stronger job creation and have seen 8 to 9 percent price gains over the past 12 months in our combined indexes. In contrast, values were flat or down in Connecticut, Delaware and Maryland in our overall index, including distressed sales.”
“We continue to see a strong and progressive uptick in home prices as we enter 2015. We project home prices will continue to rise throughout the year and into 2016,” said Anand Nallathambi, president and CEO of CoreLogic. “A dearth of supply in many parts of the country is a big factor driving up prices. Many homeowners have taken advantage of low rates to refinance their homes, and until we see sustained increases in income levels and employment they are hunkered down so supplies may remain tight. Demand has picked up as low mortgage rates and the cut in FHA's annual insurance premium reduce monthly payments for prospective homebuyers.”
Highlights as of January 2015:
- Including distressed sales, the five states with the highest home price appreciation were Colorado (+9.1 percent), Michigan (+9.0 percent), Texas (+8.3 percent), Wyoming (+8.3 percent) and Nevada (+7.6 percent).
- Excluding distressed sales, the five states with the highest home price appreciation were Colorado (+8.1 percent), Nevada (+7.9 percent), Texas (+7.8 percent), Massachusetts (+7.7 percent), and Oregon (+7.4 percent).
- Including distressed transactions, the peak-to-current change in the national HPI (from April 2006 to January 2015) was -12.7 percent. Excluding distressed transactions, the peak-to-current change in the HPI for the same period was -8.6 percent.
- Including distressed sales, only Maryland and Connecticut showed negative home price appreciation at -0.3 percent and -1.9 percent respectively. The five states with the largest peak-to-current declines, including distressed transactions, were Nevada (-35.3 percent), Florida (-32.6 percent), Rhode Island (-29.9 percent), Arizona (-28.6 percent) and Connecticut (-24.8 percent).
- Including distressed sales, the U.S. has experienced 35 consecutive months of year-over-year increases; however, the national increase is no longer posting double-digits.
- Ninety-four of the top 100 Core Based Statistical Areas (CBSAs) measured by population showed year-over-year increases in January 2015. The six CBSAs that showed year-over-year declines were New Orleans-Metairie, LA; Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk, CT; Rochester, NY; Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD; Wilmington, DE-MD-NJ; and Hartford-West Hartford- East Hartford, CT.
*December data was revised. Revisions with public records data are standard, and to ensure accuracy, CoreLogic incorporates the newly released public data to provide updated results.
** The forecast accuracy represents a 95-percent statistical confidence interval with a +/- 2.0 percent margin of error for the index including distressed sales and a +/- 1.9 percent margin of error for the index excluding distressed sales.
The CoreLogic HPI™ incorporates more than 30 years’ worth of repeat sales transactions, representing more than 65 million observations sourced from CoreLogic industry-leading property information and its securities and servicing databases. The CoreLogic HPI provides a multi-tier market evaluation based on price, time between sales, property type, loan type (conforming vs. nonconforming) and distressed sales. The CoreLogic HPI is a repeat-sales index that tracks increases and decreases in sales prices for the same homes over time, including single-family attached and single-family detached homes, which provides a more accurate “constant-quality” view of pricing trends than basing analysis on all home sales. The CoreLogic HPI provides the most comprehensive set of monthly home price indices available covering 7267 ZIP codes (60 percent of total U.S. population), 655 Core Based Statistical Areas (89 percent of total U.S. population) and 1,282 counties (85 percent of total U.S. population) located in all 50 states and the District of Columbia. Forecast ranges provided in this report are based on a 95 percent confidence interval.
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CoreLogic (NYSE: CLGX) is a leading global property information, analytics and data-enabled services provider. The company’s combined data from public, contributory and proprietary sources includes over 3.5 billion records spanning more than 40 years, providing detailed coverage of property, mortgages and other encumbrances, consumer credit, tenancy, location, hazard risk and related performance information. The markets CoreLogic serves include real estate and mortgage finance, insurance, capital markets, and the public sector. CoreLogic delivers value to clients through unique data, analytics, workflow technology, advisory and managed services. Clients rely on CoreLogic to help identify and manage growth opportunities, improve performance and mitigate risk. Headquartered in Irvine, Calif., CoreLogic operates in North America, Western Europe and Asia Pacific. For more information, please visit www.corelogic.com.
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