CoreLogic US Home Price Report Shows Prices Up 5.7 Percent Year Over Year in June 2016
—Forecast Projects Increase of 5.3 Percent by June 2017—
IRVINE, Calif., August 2, 2016
CoreLogic® (NYSE: CLGX), a leading global property information, analytics and data-enabled solutions provider, today released its CoreLogic Home Price Index (HPI™) and HPI Forecast™ for June 2016 which shows home prices are up both year over year and month over month.
Home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, increased year over year by 5.7 percent in June 2016 compared with June 2015 and increased month over month by 1.1 percent in June 2016 compared with May 2016,* according to the CoreLogic HPI.
The CoreLogic HPI Forecast indicates that home prices will increase by 5.3 percent on a year-over-year basis from June 2016 to June 2017, and on a month-over-month basis home prices are expected to increase 0.6 percent from June 2016 to July 2016. The CoreLogic HPI Forecast is a projection of home prices using the CoreLogic HPI and other economic variables. Values are derived from state-level forecasts by weighting indices according to the number of owner-occupied households for each state.
“Mortgage rates dipped in June to their lowest level in more than three years, supporting home purchases,” said Dr. Frank Nothaft, chief economist for CoreLogic. “Local markets with strong economic growth have generally had stronger home-price growth. Among large metropolitan areas, Denver had the lowest unemployment rate and the strongest home-price appreciation.”
“Home prices continue to increase across the country, especially in the lower price ranges and in a number of metro areas,” said Anand Nallathambi, president and CEO of CoreLogic. “We see prices continuing to increase at a healthy rate over the next year by as much as 5 percent.”
The CoreLogic HPI™ is built on industry-leading public record, servicing and securities real-estate databases and incorporates more than 40 years of repeat-sales transactions for analyzing home price trends. Generally released on the first Tuesday of each month with an average five-week lag, the CoreLogic HPI is designed to provide an early indication of home price trends by market segment and for the Single-Family Combined tier representing the most comprehensive set of properties (including all sales for Single-Family Attached and Single-Family Detached properties). The indexes are fully revised with each release and employ techniques to signal turning points sooner. The CoreLogic HPI provides measures for multiple market segments, referred to as tiers, based on property type, price, time between sales, loan type (conforming vs. non-conforming) and distressed sales. Broad national coverage is available from the national level down to ZIP Code, including non-disclosure states. This month’s release incorporates a variety of modeling and other enhancements to the HPI and its forecast, including a 14 percent expansion in number of transaction pairs and extension of the HPI Forecast to a 30-year horizon.
CoreLogic HPI Forecasts™ are based on a two-stage, error-correction econometric model that combines the equilibrium home price—as a function of real disposable income per capita—with short-run fluctuations caused by market momentum, mean-reversion, and exogenous economic shocks like changes in the unemployment rate. With a thirty-year forecast horizon, CoreLogic HPI Forecasts project CoreLogic HPI levels for two tiers—Single-Family Combined (both Attached and Detached) and Single-Family Combined excluding distressed sales. As a companion to the CoreLogic HPI Forecasts, Stress-Testing Scenarios align with Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR) national scenarios to project five years of home prices under baseline, adverse and severely adverse scenarios at state, CBSA and ZIP Code-levels. The forecast accuracy represents a 95-percent statistical confidence interval with a +/- 2.0 percent margin of error for the index.
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CoreLogic (NYSE: CLGX) is a leading global property information, analytics and data-enabled solutions provider. The company's combined data from public, contributory and proprietary sources includes over 4.5 billion records spanning more than 50 years, providing detailed coverage of property, mortgages and other encumbrances, consumer credit, tenancy, location, hazard risk and related performance information. The markets CoreLogic serves include real estate and mortgage finance, insurance, capital markets, and the public sector. CoreLogic delivers value to clients through unique data, analytics, workflow technology, advisory and managed services. Clients rely on CoreLogic to help identify and manage growth opportunities, improve performance and mitigate risk. Headquartered in Irvine, Calif., CoreLogic operates in North America, Western Europe and Asia Pacific. For more information, please visit www.corelogic.com.
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