A Super Bowl Prediction That Gets the Job Done: Team from City with Lower Jobless Rate Has 85 Percent Success Rate
RiseSmart analysis of U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data predicts a Patriots victory – but Giants have bucked trend before.
INDIANAPOLIS, Ind. (Jan. 31, 2012) /PRNewswire/ — When Super Bowl XLVI kicks off here at Lucas Oil Stadium on February 5, millions of Americans will be making predictions on the outcome. But a RiseSmart analysis shows that one of the most startlingly accurate predictors of Super Bowl success comes from the unlikeliest of sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) unemployment data.
Here’s the scoop:
WHAT: The team whose metropolitan area boasts the lower unemployment rate during the previous calendar year has won 17 of the past 20 Super Bowls – a remarkable 85 percent success rate. Based on this correlation, the New England Patriots should claim the NFL championship over the New York Giants. Through November, the 2011 unemployment rate for the Boston metropolitan area was 6.8 percent, compared to 8.5 percent for the New York metropolitan area.
WHY: A case can be made that a fan base with lower unemployment is more likely to attend games, buy team gear, celebrate at sports bars and, ultimately, cheer their team on to victory. By contrast, a metro area that is struggling with high unemployment might have a subtle but insidious effect on its team’s morale.
THE DATA: View a Super Bowl data table correlating teams and BLS jobless rates for the past 20 years, or see the data in a colorful Super Bowl infographic.
FUN FACT: The Giants’ upset victory over New England in Super Bowl XLII, when the Patriots entered the game undefeated, represents one of the three times in the past two decades when the unemployment rate predictor failed to predict the outcome of the game.
UN-FUN FACT: Super Bowl XLVI is the third consecutive Super Bowl in which both teams hail from a metropolitan area with an unemployment rate over 6 percent. Before 2010, the last time the two Super Bowl teams both came from cities with jobless rates exceeding 6 percent was 1994, when Dallas defeated Buffalo in Super Bowl XXVIII.
WHO: This analysis of employment data and Super Bowl prowess comes from RiseSmart, the leading provider of next-generation outplacement solutions. RiseSmart’s founder and CEO, Sanjay Sathe, is available to discuss the Super Bowl forecast and the impact of employment on pigskin success. Says Sathe: “Never underestimate the power of having a job.”
WHAT ELSE: To spread the word about this Super Bowl correlation, RiseSmart today released a media kit consisting of broadcast-quality b-roll, a video interview with RiseSmart CEO Sanjay Sathe discussing the Big Game, and a Super Bowl prediction infographic.
Based in San Jose, Calif., RiseSmart is the leading provider of next-generation outplacement solutions. For more information, visit http://www.risesmart.com.