CoreLogic Reports Home Prices Increased by Less Than 1 Percent Month Over Month in October
––Analysis Projects Virtually No Growth Month Over Month in November––
Excluding distressed sales, home prices increased 0.4 percent month over month in October 2013 compared to September 2013. On a year-over-year basis, excluding distressed sales, home prices increased by 11 percent in October 2013 compared to October 2012. Distressed sales include short sales and real-estate owned (REO) transactions.
The CoreLogic Pending HPI indicates that November 2013 home prices, including distressed sales, are expected to remain at the same level month over month as October 2013, with a projected increase of 12.2 percent on a year-over-year basis from November 2012. Excluding distressed sales, November 2013 home prices are poised to rise just 0.4 percent month over month from October 2013 and 11.3 percent year over year from November 2012. The CoreLogic Pending HPI is a proprietary and exclusive metric that provides the most current indication of trends in home prices. It is based on Multiple Listing Service (MLS) data that measure price changes for the most recent month.
“In October, the year-over-year appreciation rate remained strong, but the month-over-month appreciation rate was barely positive, indicating that house price appreciation has slowed as expected for the winter,” said Dr. Mark Fleming, chief economist for CoreLogic. “Based on our pending HPI, the monthly growth rate is expected to moderate even further in November and December. The slowdown in price appreciation is positive for the housing market as almost half the states are now within 10 percent of their respective historical price peaks.”
“In terms of home price appreciation, the housing market appears to be catching its breath as we head into the final months of 2013,” said Anand Nallathambi, president and CEO of CoreLogic. “The deceleration in month-on-month trends was anticipated as strong gains in home prices over the spring and summer slow in line with normal seasonal patterns and the impact of higher mortgage interest rates.”
Highlights as of October 2013:
- Including distressed sales, the five states with the highest home price appreciation were: Nevada (+25.9 percent), California (+22.4 percent), Georgia (+14.2 percent), Michigan (+14.1 percent) and Arizona (+14 percent).
- Including distressed sales, the only state to show depreciation was New Mexico (-0.5 percent).
- Excluding distressed sales, the five states with the highest home price appreciation were: Nevada (+22.5 percent), California (+18.5 percent), Utah (+13.3 percent), Florida (+13 percent) and New York (+12.4 percent).
- Excluding distressed sales, no states posted home price depreciation in October.
- Including distressed transactions, the peak-to-current change in the national HPI (from April 2006 to October 2013) was -17.3 percent. Excluding distressed transactions, the peak-to-current change in the HPI for the same period was -13.1 percent.
- The five states with the largest peak-to-current declines, including distressed transactions, were Nevada (-40.7 percent), Florida (-37.4 percent), Arizona (-31.5 percent), Rhode Island (-29.3 percent) and West Virginia (-28 percent).
- 96 of the top 100 Core Based Statistical Areas** (CBSAs) measured by population showed year-over-year increases in October 2013.
*September data was revised. Revisions with public records data are standard, and to ensure accuracy, CoreLogic incorporates the newly released public data to provide updated results.
**The Office of Management and Budget (OMB) issued a bulletin on February 28, 2013, establishing revised Core Based Statistical Area (CBSA) delineations. With today’s release of HPI, these new delineations are now reflected in the data.
The CoreLogic HPI™ incorporates more than 30 years’ worth of repeat sales transactions, representing more than 65 million observations sourced from CoreLogic industry-leading property information and its securities and servicing databases. The CoreLogic HPI provides a multi-tier market evaluation based on price, time between sales, property type, loan type (conforming vs. nonconforming) and distressed sales. The CoreLogic HPI is a repeat-sales index that tracks increases and decreases in sales prices for the same homes over time, including single-family attached and single-family detached homes, which provides a more accurate "constant-quality" view of pricing trends than basing analysis on all home sales. The CoreLogic HPI provides the most comprehensive set of monthly home price indices available covering 6,948 ZIP codes (58 percent of total U.S. population), 647 Core Based Statistical Areas (86 percent of total U.S. population) and 1,227 counties (84 percent of total U.S. population) located in all 50 states and the District of Columbia.
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CoreLogic (NYSE: CLGX) is a leading property information, analytics and services provider in the United States and Australia. The company’s combined data from public, contributory and proprietary sources includes over 3.3 billion records spanning more than 40 years, providing detailed coverage of property, mortgages and other encumbrances, consumer credit, tenancy, location, hazard risk and related performance information. The markets CoreLogic serves include real estate and mortgage finance, insurance, capital markets, transportation and government. CoreLogic delivers value to clients through unique data, analytics, workflow technology, advisory and managed services. Clients rely on CoreLogic to help identify and manage growth opportunities, improve performance and mitigate risk. Headquartered in Irvine, Calif., CoreLogic operates in seven countries. For more information, please visit http://www.corelogic.com.
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