CoreLogic Reports U.S. Foreclosure Inventory Down 34 Percent Nationally From a Year Ago
—Shadow inventory falls to 1.7 million homes, the lowest level since August 2008—
According to CoreLogic analysis:
- There were 46,000 completed foreclosures in the United States in November 2013, down from 64,000 in November 2012, a year-over-year decrease of 29 percent. On a month-over-month basis, completed foreclosures decreased 8.3 percent, from 50,000 in October 2013.*
- National residential shadow inventory was 1.7 million homes as of October 2013, accounting for a value of $256 billion, which is down 26.4 percent from $348 billion a year ago.
Completed foreclosures are an indication of the total number of homes actually lost to foreclosure. As a basis of comparison to the 46,000 completed foreclosures reported for November 2013, completed foreclosures averaged 21,000 per month nationwide between 2000 and 2006 before the decline in the housing market in 2007. Since the financial crisis began in September 2008, there have been approximately 4.7 million completed foreclosures across the country.
As of November 2013, approximately 812,000 homes in the United States were in some stage of foreclosure, known as the foreclosure inventory, compared to 1.2 million in November 2012, a year-over-year decrease of 34 percent. Month over month, the foreclosure inventory was down 4.6 percent from October 2013 to November 2013. The foreclosure inventory as of November 2013 represented 2.1 percent of all homes with a mortgage compared to 3 percent in November 2012.
At the end of November 2013, there were fewer than 2 million mortgages, or 5 percent, in serious delinquency, defined as 90 days or more past due, including those loans in foreclosure or real estate owned (REO). The rate of seriously delinquent mortgages is at its lowest level since November 2008.
“Nationally, loan performance continues to improve. The rate of seriously delinquent loans is at a new five-year low, down 26 percent relative to a year ago,” said Dr. Mark Fleming, chief economist for CoreLogic. “The shadow inventory continues to decline as well, decreasing at an average monthly rate of 46,000 units over the last year. Healthy market levels of shadow inventory are around 650,000 units, so there is more to be done, but the trend is in the right direction.”
“Consumer confidence is definitely up as the economic rebound gathers more steam,” said Anand Nallathambi, president and CEO of CoreLogic. “As the negative equity crisis abates and home prices continue to rise, most people are prioritizing the payment of their mortgage obligations. The result is a double-digit drop in the inventory of seriously delinquent homes in 48 states as of October.”
- The five states with the highest number of completed foreclosures for the 12 months ending in November 2013 were Florida (115,000), Michigan (54,000), California (42,000), Texas (40,000) and Georgia (36,000). These five states account for almost half of all completed foreclosures nationally.
- The five states with the lowest number of completed foreclosures for the 12 months ending in November 2013 were District of Columbia (51), North Dakota (401), Hawaii (480), West Virginia (524) and Wyoming (716).
- The five states with the highest foreclosure inventory as a percentage of all mortgaged homes as of November 2013 were Florida (6.6 percent), New Jersey (6.5 percent), New York (4.7 percent), Maine (3.5 percent) and Connecticut (3.5 percent).
- The five states with the lowest foreclosure inventory as a percentage of all mortgaged homes as of November 2013 were Wyoming (0.4 percent), Alaska (0.5 percent), North Dakota (0.6 percent), Nebraska (0.6 percent) and Colorado (0.6 percent).
Shadow Inventory Highlights:
- As of November 2013, shadow inventory was 1.7 million properties, and almost half are delinquent but not yet foreclosed.
- The shadow inventory is down 24 percent compared to one year ago.
- The value of shadow inventory in November 2013 was $256 billion, down 26.4 percent from $348 billion a year ago and down 15.9 percent $304 billion from six months ago.
CoreLogic estimates the current stock of properties in the shadow inventory, also known as pending supply, by calculating the number of properties that are seriously delinquent, in foreclosure or held as REO by mortgage servicers, but not currently listed on multiple listing services (MLSs). Transition rates of “delinquency to foreclosure” and “foreclosure to REO” are used to identify the currently distressed, unlisted properties most likely to become REO properties. Properties that are not yet delinquent, but may become delinquent in the future, are not included in the estimate of the current shadow inventory. Shadow inventory is typically not included in the official reporting measurements of unsold inventory.
*October data was revised. Revisions are standard, and to ensure accuracy, CoreLogic incorporates newly released data to provide updated results.
Judicial Foreclosure States Foreclosure Ranking (Ranked by Completed Foreclosures)
Non-Judicial Foreclosure States Foreclosure Ranking (Ranked by Completed Foreclosures)
Foreclosure Data for the Largest Core Based Statistical Areas (CBSAs) Based on Population (Ranked by Completed Foreclosures)
Figure 1: Shadow Inventory Detail
In Thousands, Not Seasonally Adjusted
Figure 2: Months’ Supply Shadow Inventory Detail
Number of Months, Not Seasonally Adjusted
Figure 3: Foreclosure Inventory by State Map
Foreclosure Inventory Methodology The data in this report represents foreclosure activity reported through November 2013.
This report separates state data into judicial vs. non-judicial foreclosure state categories. In judicial foreclosure states, lenders must provide evidence to the courts of delinquency in order to move a borrower into foreclosure. In non-judicial foreclosure states, lenders can issue notices of default directly to the borrower without court intervention. This is an important distinction since judicial states, as a rule, have longer foreclosure timelines, thus affecting foreclosure statistics.
A completed foreclosure occurs when a property is auctioned and results in the purchase of the home at auction by either a third party, such as an investor, or by the lender. If the home is purchased by the lender, it is moved into the lender’s real estate owned (REO) inventory. In “foreclosure by advertisement” states, a redemption period begins after the auction and runs for a statutory period, e.g., six months. During that period, the borrower may regain the foreclosed home by paying all amounts due as calculated under the statute. For purposes of this Foreclosure Report, because so few homes are actually redeemed following an auction, it is assumed that the foreclosure process ends in “foreclosure by advertisement” states at the completion of the auction.
The foreclosure inventory represents the number and share of mortgaged homes that have been placed into the process of foreclosure by the mortgage servicer. Mortgage servicers start the foreclosure process when the mortgage reaches a specific level of serious delinquency as dictated by the investor for the mortgage loan. Once a foreclosure is “started,” and absent the borrower paying all amounts necessary to halt the foreclosure, the home remains in foreclosure until the completed foreclosure results in the sale to a third party at auction or the home enters the lender’s REO inventory. The data in this report accounts for only first liens against a property and does not include secondary liens. The foreclosure inventory is measured only against homes that have an outstanding mortgage. Homes with no mortgage liens can never be in foreclosure and are, therefore, excluded from the analysis. Approximately one-third of homes nationally are owned outright and do not have a mortgage. CoreLogic has approximately 85 percent coverage of U.S. foreclosure data.
Shadow Inventory Methodology CoreLogic uses its Loan Performance Servicing and Securities databases to size the number of 90+ day delinquencies, foreclosures and real estate owned (REO) properties. Cure rates, which measure the proportion of loans in one stage of default that cured (versus moving to more severe states of default), are applied to the number of loans in default at each stage of default. CoreLogic calculates the share of loans in default that are currently listed on MLS by matching public record properties in default to MLS active listings. It applies the percentage of defaulted loans that are currently listed to the estimate of outstanding loans that will proceed to further stages of default to calculate the pending supply inventory and adds that to the reported visible inventory. Visible inventory is compiled from CoreLogic ListingTrends. To determine months' supply for visible and shadow inventories, CoreLogic uses the number of non-seasonally adjusted home sales according to CoreLogic data.
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