At the state level, including distressed sales, 14 states showed double-digit year-over-year growth in February; and Colorado, Nebraska, North Dakota, Texas and the District of Columbia all reached new home price highs. Additionally, 22 states were at or within 10 percent of their price peaks.
Excluding distressed sales, home prices nationally increased 10.7 percent in February 2014 compared to February 2013 and 0.9 percent month over month compared to January 2014. Also, all 50 states and the District of Columbia showed year-over-year home price appreciation when distressed sales were excluded. Distressed sales include short sales and real estate owned (REO) transactions.
Beginning with the February 2014 HPI report, CoreLogic is introducing a new forecast metric that provides an advanced indication of trends in home prices. Individual forecasts, making up the CoreLogic HPI Forecasts™, provide forward-looking insight among the various categories of the CoreLogic HPI. Including distressed sales, the forecast indicates that home prices, are projected to increase 0.5 percent month over month from February 2014 to March 2014. Furthermore, the forecast indicates that home prices, including distressed sales, are expected to increase 10.5 percent year over year from March 2013 to March 2014. Excluding distressed sales, home prices are poised to rise 0.4 percent month over month from February 2014 to March 2014 and 9.3 percent year over year from March 2013 to March 2014. The CoreLogic HPI Forecasts are a monthly forecast built on the CoreLogic HPI and other economic variables. Values are derived from state-level forecasts by weighting indices by the number of owner-occupied households for each state.
“As the spring home-buying season kicks off, house price appreciation continues to be strong,” said Dr. Mark Fleming, chief economist for CoreLogic. “Although prices should remain strong in the near term due to a short supply of homes on the market, price increases should moderate over the next year as home equity releases pent-up supply.”
“February marks two straight years of year-over-year gains in national prices across the United States,” said Anand Nallathambi, president and CEO of CoreLogic. “The consistent upward movement in home prices should ultimately prove to be an important stimulant for higher levels of sustained market activity and growth in the housing economy.”
Highlights as of February 2014:
- Including distressed sales, the five states with the highest home price appreciation were California (+19.8 percent), Nevada (+18.5 percent), Georgia (+14.2 percent), Oregon (+13.8 percent) and Michigan (+13.5 percent).
- Excluding distressed sales, the five states with the highest home price appreciation were California (+15.9 percent), Nevada (+14.6 percent), Florida (+13.1 percent), Washington (+11.5 percent) and Hawaii (+11.5 percent).
- Including distressed transactions, the peak-to-current change in the national HPI (from April 2006 to February 2014) was -16.9 percent. Excluding distressed transactions, the peak-to-current change in the HPI for the same period was -12.1 percent.
- Including or excluding distressed sales, no state posted home price depreciation in February 2014.
- The five states with the largest peak-to-current declines, including distressed transactions, were Nevada (-39.9 percent), Florida (-36.4 percent), Rhode Island (-30.9 percent), Arizona (-30.5 percent) and West Virginia (-26.6 percent).
- Ninety-six of the top 100 Core Based Statistical Areas (CBSAs) measured by population showed year-over-year increases in February 2014. The four CBSAs that did not show an increase were Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway, Ark., Milwaukee-Waukesha-West Allis, Wis., Rochester, N.Y. and Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, Va.-N.C.
*January data was revised. Revisions with public records data are standard, and to ensure accuracy, CoreLogic incorporates the newly released public data to provide updated results.
The CoreLogic HPI™ incorporates more than 30 years’ worth of repeat sales transactions, representing more than 65 million observations sourced from CoreLogic industry-leading property information and its securities and servicing databases. The CoreLogic HPI provides a multi-tier market evaluation based on price, time between sales, property type, loan type (conforming vs. nonconforming) and distressed sales. The CoreLogic HPI is a repeat-sales index that tracks increases and decreases in sales prices for the same homes over time, including single-family attached and single-family detached homes, which provides a more accurate “constant-quality” view of pricing trends than basing analysis on all home sales. The CoreLogic HPI provides the most comprehensive set of monthly home price indices available covering 6,993 ZIP codes (58 percent of total U.S. population), 638 Core Based Statistical Areas (86 percent of total U.S. population) and 1,239 counties (84 percent of total U.S. population) located in all 50 states and the District of Columbia.
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