At the state level, including distressed sales, no states posted depreciation in April 2014. Additionally, Colorado, Louisiana, Nebraska, Oklahoma, North Dakota, South Dakota, Texas and Wyoming all surpassed their previous home price peaks. In all, 23 states and the District of Columbia are at or within 10 percent of their peak home price appreciation.
Excluding distressed sales, home prices nationally increased 8.3 percent in April 2014 compared to April 2013 and 1.1 percent month over month compared to March 2014. Distressed sales include short sales and real estate owned (REO) transactions.
The CoreLogic HPI Forecast indicates that home prices, including distressed sales, are projected to increase 1.0 percent month over month from April 2014 to May 2014 and by 5.5 percent (+/ 1.5 percent)** from April 2014 to April 2015. Excluding distressed sales, home prices are expected to rise 0.8 percent month over month from 1.0 percent month over month from April 2014 to May 2014 and by 6.3 percent (+/ 1.5 percent)** from April 2014 to April 2015. The CoreLogic HPI Forecast is a monthly projection of home prices built on the CoreLogic HPI and other economic variables. Values are derived from state-level forecasts by weighting indices according to the number of owner-occupied households for each state.
“The weakness in home sales that began a few months ago is clearly signaling a slowdown in price appreciation,” said Sam Khater, deputy chief economist for CoreLogic. “The 10.5 percent increase in April, compared to a year earlier, was the slowest rate of appreciation in 14 months.”
“Home prices are continuing to rise as we head into the summer months,” said Anand Nallathambi, president and CEO of CoreLogic. “The purchase market continues to suffer from a dearth of inventory which we expect will continue to drive prices up over the year.”
Highlights as of April 2014:
- Including distressed sales, the five states with the highest home price appreciation were: California (+15.6 percent), Nevada (+14.8 percent), Hawaii (+14.1 percent), Oregon (+11.8 percent) and Michigan (+11.3 percent).
- Excluding distressed sales, the five states with the highest home price appreciation were: Hawaii (+13.0 percent), California (+11.4 percent), Nevada (+11.1 percent), New York (+10.3 percent) and Florida (+10.2 percent).
- Including distressed transactions, the peak-to-current change in the national HPI (from April 2006 to April 2014) was 14.3 percent. Excluding distressed transactions, the peak-to-current change in the HPI for the same period was 10.8 percent.
- Excluding distressed sales, all 50 states and the District of Columbia showed year-over-year home price appreciation in April.
- Including distressed sales, the U.S. has experienced 26 consecutive months of year-over-year increases; however, this is the smallest year-over-year increase since February 2013.
- The five states with the largest peak-to-current declines, including distressed transactions, were: Nevada (38.6 percent), Florida (34.5 percent), Arizona (29.5 percent), Rhode Island (28.8 percent) and West Virginia (24.2 percent).
- Ninety-five of the top 100 Core Based Statistical Areas (CBSAs) measured by population showed year-over-year increases in April 2014. The five CBSAs that did not show an increase were: Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford, Conn.; Milwaukee-Waukesha-West Allis, Wis.; Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway, Ark.; Worcester, Mass.-Conn.; New Haven-Milford, Conn.
*March data was revised. Revisions with public records data are standard, and to ensure accuracy, CoreLogic incorporates the newly released public data to provide updated results.
** The forecast accuracy represents a 95-percent statistical confidence interval.
The CoreLogic HPI incorporates more than 30 years' worth of repeat sales transactions, representing more than 65 million observations sourced from CoreLogic industry-leading property information and its securities and servicing databases. The CoreLogic HPI provides a multi-tier market evaluation based on price, time between sales, property type, loan type (conforming vs. nonconforming) and distressed sales. The CoreLogic HPI is a repeat-sales index that tracks increases and decreases in sales prices for the same homes over time, including single-family attached and single-family detached homes, which provides a more accurate “constant-quality” view of pricing trends than basing analysis on all home sales. The CoreLogic HPI provides the most comprehensive set of monthly home price indices available covering 7,016 ZIP codes (58 percent of total U.S. population), 644 Core Based Statistical Areas (86 percent of total U.S. population) and 1,245 counties (84 percent of total U.S. population) located in all 50 states and the District of Columbia. Forecast ranges provided in this report are based on a 95 percent confidence interval.
The data provided are for use only by the primary recipient or the primary recipient's publication or broadcast. This data may not be re-sold, republished or licensed to any other source, including publications and sources owned by the primary recipient's parent company without prior written permission from CoreLogic. Any CoreLogic data used for publication or broadcast, in whole or in part, must be sourced as coming from CoreLogic, a data and analytics company. For use with broadcast or web content, the citation must directly accompany first reference of the data. If the data are illustrated with maps, charts, graphs or other visual elements, the CoreLogic logo must be included on screen or website. For questions, analysis or interpretation of the data, contact Lori Guyton at firstname.lastname@example.org or Bill Campbell at email@example.com. Data provided may not be modified without the prior written permission of CoreLogic. Do not use the data in any unlawful manner. The data are compiled from public records, contributory databases and proprietary analytics, and its accuracy is dependent upon these sources.
CoreLogic (NYSE: CLGX) is a leading global property information, analytics and data-enabled services provider. The company's combined data from public, contributory and proprietary sources includes over 3.3 billion records spanning more than 40 years, providing detailed coverage of property, mortgages and other encumbrances, consumer credit, tenancy, location, hazard risk and related performance information. The markets CoreLogic serves include real estate and mortgage finance, insurance, capital markets, and the public sector. CoreLogic delivers value to clients through unique data, analytics, workflow technology, advisory and managed services. Clients rely on CoreLogic to help identify and manage growth opportunities, improve performance and mitigate risk. Headquartered in Irvine, Calif., CoreLogic operates in North America, Western Europe and Asia Pacific. For more information, please visit www.corelogic.com.
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